Smart-money board · Polymarket
Top 100 Polymarket wallets — ranked by skill, not luck
The Polymarket wallets with the strongest statistical evidence of informed trading. We score skill with value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw — Akey–Grégoire 2026, SSRN 6443103) plus a confidence score from a calibrated-null skill test, longshot conversion, pre-event timing and conviction sizing — never raw PnL. Every score ships with a 95% confidence bound and its resolved-trade count. The live board re-ranks nightly.
Data as of June 10, 2026
Read me
44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers). Survivors are over-represented on any leaderboard — read scores with their confidence bounds. Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
| # | Wallet | Evidence | Best edge · 95% low · n | Markets | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rank 1: zerosmart0x2755…5016 | 82/100Exceptional evidence | Politics +30.9¢ [+14.6¢ · n=2694] | 173 | May 27, 2026 |
| 2 | Rank 2: comical-32782210x5ba1…1171 | 53/100Strong evidence | Politics +9.6¢ [+1.7¢ · n=572] | 126 | May 19, 2026 |
| 3 | Rank 3: 0x71e1…45f0 | 45/100Strong evidence | Finance +2.5¢ [−11.8¢ · n=4603] | 376 | June 8, 2026 |
| 4 | Rank 4: 0xa933…6077 | 44/100Strong evidence | — | 7 | November 15, 2024 |
| 5 | Rank 5: 0x8857…c270 | 40/100Strong evidence | Politics +50.6¢ [+40.4¢ · n=8814] | 14 | November 6, 2024 |
| 6 | Rank 6: sweetspea0x6b88…9856 | 40/100Strong evidence | Politics +24.9¢ [+19.7¢ · n=2670] | 59 | June 4, 2026 |
| 7 | Rank 7: 0x6bab…1292 | 39/100Moderate evidence | Crypto +6.8¢ [+3.0¢ · n=2102] | 1356 | June 10, 2026 |
| 8 | Rank 8: 0x2728…a83c | 35/100Moderate evidence | Politics +40.2¢ [−17.3¢ · n=1638] | 189 | September 29, 2025 |
| 9 | Rank 9: 0x1823…84d8 | 35/100Moderate evidence | Politics +27.9¢ [−5.1¢ · n=805] | 18 | March 1, 2026 |
| 10 | Rank 10: 0xacba…e6bc | 35/100Moderate evidence | — | 17 | June 10, 2026 |
| 11 | Rank 11: 0x5668…5839 | 34/100Moderate evidence | Politics +49.7¢ [+33.0¢ · n=16098] | 21 | November 13, 2024 |
| 12 | Rank 12: 0xe5f0…dc1d | 34/100Moderate evidence | — | 30 | June 9, 2026 |
| 13 | Rank 13: 0x71dd…d61c | 34/100Moderate evidence | — | 31 | November 15, 2024 |
| 14 | Rank 14: 0x2753…e723 | 33/100Moderate evidence | — | 21 | November 28, 2025 |
| 15 | Rank 15: 0xabd2…bcf5 | 33/100Moderate evidence | — | 131 | June 7, 2026 |
| 16 | Rank 16: 0x78b9…6b76 | 32/100Moderate evidence | Politics +52.2¢ [+39.6¢ · n=6077] | 11 | November 6, 2024 |
| 17 | Rank 17: 0xd8ca…7229 | 32/100Moderate evidence | Finance +0.4¢ [−11.0¢ · n=141] | 189 | May 23, 2026 |
| 18 | Rank 18: 0x4e56…dee1 | 31/100Moderate evidence | Politics +1.3¢ [−4.0¢ · n=2619] | 422 | May 9, 2026 |
| 19 | Rank 19: 0x008b…b476 | 31/100Moderate evidence | Politics +7.4¢ [−1.6¢ · n=737] | 42 | March 21, 2026 |
| 20 | Rank 20: 0x5553…6d2e | 31/100Moderate evidence | Politics +6.8¢ [−4.6¢ · n=1352] | 67 | May 20, 2026 |
| 21 | Rank 21: 0tea0x7eff…7196 | 31/100Moderate evidence | Politics +17.9¢ [+9.6¢ · n=330] | 30 | March 14, 2026 |
| 22 | Rank 22: 0x18f3…0c20 | 31/100Moderate evidence | — | 16 | June 6, 2026 |
| 23 | Rank 23: 0x68c2…1711 | 30/100Moderate evidence | Crypto +2.2¢ [−1.7¢ · n=733] | 2260 | June 9, 2026 |
| 24 | Rank 24: 0xe091…9549 | 30/100Moderate evidence | — | 16 | November 14, 2024 |
| 25 | Rank 25: 0x19f2…0cad | 30/100Moderate evidence | — | 23 | January 27, 2026 |
| 26 | Rank 26: 0x2378…5fcb | 29/100Moderate evidence | Politics +47.8¢ [+37.7¢ · n=14748] | 14 | November 6, 2024 |
| 27 | Rank 27: 0x41f2…eecf | 29/100Moderate evidence | Politics +12.8¢ [−0.5¢ · n=311] | 18 | January 13, 2026 |
| 28 | Rank 28: 0xe015…6ffd | 28/100Moderate evidence | Sports +35.5¢ [+25.2¢ · n=108] | 16 | June 10, 2026 |
| 29 | Rank 29: 0xc89f…695b | 28/100Moderate evidence | — | 19 | November 15, 2024 |
| 30 | Rank 30: 0x5faf…27bb | 27/100Moderate evidence | Sports +7.1¢ [+0.4¢ · n=721] | 150 | February 8, 2026 |
| 31 | Rank 31: 0xdbdd…a5de | 27/100Moderate evidence | — | 296 | June 10, 2026 |
| 32 | Rank 32: 0x8cbf…0eb4 | 27/100Moderate evidence | — | 14 | June 7, 2026 |
| 33 | Rank 33: 0xb747…b050 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Politics +4.4¢ [+2.1¢ · n=23750] | 914 | December 30, 2025 |
| 34 | Rank 34: 0x79f2…7620 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Politics +4.9¢ [+1.0¢ · n=6252] | 144 | February 9, 2025 |
| 35 | Rank 35: 0xd0c0…5565 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Politics +48.2¢ [+39.2¢ · n=3411] | 10 | November 1, 2024 |
| 36 | Rank 36: 0xfb79…c2c6 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Sports +6.3¢ [+1.7¢ · n=7988] | 949 | April 9, 2025 |
| 37 | Rank 37: 0xaa98…4a57 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Crypto +14.2¢ [+5.9¢ · n=1231] | 154 | February 3, 2025 |
| 38 | Rank 38: 0xc47b…d74f | 26/100Moderate evidence | Politics −2.4¢ [−13.0¢ · n=1974] | 34 | November 12, 2024 |
| 39 | Rank 39: 0xa5ea…d96a | 26/100Moderate evidence | Sports +20.5¢ [−16.0¢ · n=871] | 15 | June 9, 2026 |
| 40 | Rank 40: 0x5bbd…9ec2 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Politics +3.9¢ [−14.1¢ · n=1682] | 50 | June 4, 2026 |
| 41 | Rank 41: 0x7cab…d5f7 | 26/100Moderate evidence | — | 7 | November 15, 2024 |
| 42 | Rank 42: 0xfffe…f52c | 25/100Moderate evidence | Crypto +12.6¢ [+0.1¢ · n=236] | 136 | November 6, 2024 |
| 43 | Rank 43: 0xcf0d…132d | 25/100Moderate evidence | Politics +6.5¢ [+1.5¢ · n=8518] | 200 | December 20, 2025 |
| 44 | Rank 44: tdrhrhhd0xd7f8…89e4 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Politics +22.3¢ [+16.0¢ · n=1658] | 57 | May 30, 2026 |
| 45 | Rank 45: 0x7523…4c4c | 25/100Moderate evidence | Politics −1.2¢ [−12.3¢ · n=1289] | 67 | November 14, 2024 |
| 46 | Rank 46: 0xee1c…02f2 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=451] | 39 | November 1, 2024 |
| 47 | Rank 47: 0x9fb8…f3aa | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=444] | 36 | November 1, 2024 |
| 48 | Rank 48: 0x4858…997d | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=524] | 78 | November 1, 2024 |
| 49 | Rank 49: 0xbc5d…bb2d | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=524] | 78 | November 1, 2024 |
| 50 | Rank 50: 0xe1fa…9e03 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports −0.1¢ [−0.1¢ · n=514] | 68 | November 4, 2024 |
| 51 | Rank 51: 0xd59a…50e3 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=516] | 76 | November 2, 2024 |
| 52 | Rank 52: 0xf1d5…b3be | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=518] | 76 | November 4, 2024 |
| 53 | Rank 53: 0x4526…7a45 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Politics +5.1¢ [+0.7¢ · n=833] | 1091 | June 6, 2026 |
| 54 | Rank 54: 0xc6bc…40be | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=526] | 82 | November 1, 2024 |
| 55 | Rank 55: 0x63ae…86e9 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=522] | 82 | November 2, 2024 |
| 56 | Rank 56: 0x62ef…a52e | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=510] | 78 | November 1, 2024 |
| 57 | Rank 57: 0x165c…3fd7 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=508] | 78 | November 1, 2024 |
| 58 | Rank 58: 0x82fb…d524 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=502] | 76 | November 1, 2024 |
| 59 | Rank 59: 0x1bf2…17a0 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=516] | 80 | November 2, 2024 |
| 60 | Rank 60: 0x3f52…8b95 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=508] | 78 | November 2, 2024 |
| 61 | Rank 61: 0x8738…405f | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.0¢ · n=552] | 100 | November 4, 2024 |
| 62 | Rank 62: 0xab56…b8b4 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=500] | 76 | November 4, 2024 |
| 63 | Rank 63: 0xf9ac…6348 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=492] | 78 | November 4, 2024 |
| 64 | Rank 64: 0x2c25…7bdf | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=492] | 78 | November 4, 2024 |
| 65 | Rank 65: 0xcfda…bede | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +19.3¢ [+9.4¢ · n=1217] | 182 | December 30, 2025 |
| 66 | Rank 66: 0x0b53…5f5c | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=256] | 36 | November 6, 2024 |
| 67 | Rank 67: 0x60dc…8e73 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=255] | 36 | November 6, 2024 |
| 68 | Rank 68: 0x13e3…bf6b | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=250] | 36 | November 6, 2024 |
| 69 | Rank 69: 0x7269…1371 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=252] | 36 | November 14, 2024 |
| 70 | Rank 70: 0x126e…dc2a | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=249] | 36 | November 14, 2024 |
| 71 | Rank 71: 0x83b6…c2cd | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=250] | 37 | November 6, 2024 |
| 72 | Rank 72: 0x1a00…f0ce | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=245] | 36 | November 6, 2024 |
| 73 | Rank 73: 0x4ec2…e831 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=242] | 35 | November 6, 2024 |
| 74 | Rank 74: 0x25f2…192b | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=230] | 35 | November 6, 2024 |
| 75 | Rank 75: 0xc224…0a4a | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +0.0¢ [−0.1¢ · n=228] | 35 | November 6, 2024 |
| 76 | Rank 76: 0xf981…bff6 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Politics −1.8¢ [−3.3¢ · n=7036] | 29 | November 6, 2024 |
| 77 | Rank 77: 0x8975…e6db | 25/100Moderate evidence | Culture +9.4¢ [−0.1¢ · n=801] | 81 | March 30, 2025 |
| 78 | Rank 78: 0xd02d…ac41 | 25/100Moderate evidence | — | 26 | November 14, 2024 |
| 79 | Rank 79: 0x7aef…0100 | 25/100Moderate evidence | — | 25 | November 14, 2024 |
| 80 | Rank 80: 0x936e…df07 | 25/100Moderate evidence | — | 20 | November 14, 2024 |
| 81 | Rank 81: 0xcc07…9098 | 25/100Moderate evidence | — | 26 | November 13, 2024 |
| 82 | Rank 82: 0xdb1f…52a7 | 25/100Moderate evidence | — | 38 | January 9, 2026 |
| 83 | Rank 83: 0x8725…eb10 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Sports +7.3¢ [−16.2¢ · n=207] | 30 | June 9, 2026 |
| 84 | Rank 84: 0xbaa2…2c73 | 24/100Early signal | Politics +8.9¢ [+3.2¢ · n=926] | 806 | June 6, 2026 |
| 85 | Rank 85: 0x6ffb…a834 | 24/100Early signal | Crypto +2.0¢ [+0.8¢ · n=4328] | 10169 | June 10, 2026 |
| 86 | Rank 86: VesterGed0xf0b9…0edd | 24/100Early signal | Sports +11.0¢ [−0.7¢ · n=321] | 118 | June 6, 2026 |
| 87 | Rank 87: 0x3b9a…83d6 | 24/100Early signal | — | 22 | November 14, 2024 |
| 88 | Rank 88: 0x8b7e…6a9f | 24/100Early signal | — | 36 | November 15, 2024 |
| 89 | Rank 89: 0x0b9b…a65e | 24/100Early signal | — | 10 | November 15, 2024 |
| 90 | Rank 90: 0xc9b6…9b6a | 23/100Early signal | Crypto +1.2¢ [+0.3¢ · n=199] | 538 | June 6, 2026 |
| 91 | Rank 91: 0xe6a2…6af8 | 23/100Early signal | Crypto +1.5¢ [−5.9¢ · n=845] | 395 | January 21, 2025 |
| 92 | Rank 92: 0x16f9…99e3 | 23/100Early signal | Politics +44.9¢ [+37.5¢ · n=7274] | 15 | November 1, 2024 |
| 93 | Rank 93: 0x2274…af9b | 23/100Early signal | Crypto +25.9¢ [−10.6¢ · n=367] | 11 | March 26, 2026 |
| 94 | Rank 94: 0xe85b…60e1 | 23/100Early signal | — | 12 | November 12, 2024 |
| 95 | Rank 95: 0x1136…0c2e | 22/100Early signal | Sports +24.2¢ [−47.5¢ · n=313] | 26 | June 10, 2026 |
| 96 | Rank 96: 0xee00…cea1 | 21/100Early signal | Crypto +4.3¢ [−3.6¢ · n=1028] | 6462 | June 8, 2026 |
| 97 | Rank 97: 0xda03…a62c | 21/100Early signal | Sports +1.1¢ [−6.0¢ · n=202] | 173 | May 1, 2025 |
| 98 | Rank 98: 0xf625…aeb8 | 21/100Early signal | Politics +26.0¢ [−7.4¢ · n=252] | 22 | December 6, 2025 |
| 99 | Rank 99: a89990xec54…e8c1 | 21/100Early signal | — | 33 | June 10, 2026 |
| 100 | Rank 100: ColdW0x2765…7ee4 | 43/100Strong evidence | Sports +1.7¢ [−3.0¢ · n=3601] | 748 | June 9, 2026 |
| 101 | Rank 101: 0xab1c…aadd | 35/100Moderate evidence | Sports +5.2¢ [−13.4¢ · n=350] | 32 | June 6, 2026 |
| 102 | Rank 102: 0xb1a2…372a | 32/100Moderate evidence | Finance +2.1¢ [−0.9¢ · n=952] | 53 | June 10, 2026 |
| 103 | Rank 103: 0x9703…69c2 | 32/100Moderate evidence | Sports +29.6¢ [+6.8¢ · n=435] | 67 | June 10, 2026 |
| 104 | Rank 104: 0xed88…e838 | 29/100Moderate evidence | Sports +18.7¢ [+4.4¢ · n=235] | 77 | May 17, 2026 |
| 105 | Rank 105: 0x9c16…09cb | 29/100Moderate evidence | — | 13 | April 9, 2026 |
| 106 | Rank 106: 0x44c1…ebc1 | 26/100Moderate evidence | Crypto +6.2¢ [+3.0¢ · n=215] | 419 | June 10, 2026 |
| 107 | Rank 107: 0x382c…a0d7 | 25/100Moderate evidence | Crypto +0.0¢ [−0.6¢ · n=773] | 96 | June 5, 2026 |
| 108 | Rank 108: 0xb100…6461 | 22/100Early signal | Crypto +2.9¢ [+1.1¢ · n=2609] | 683 | June 10, 2026 |
| 109 | Rank 109: 0xd1ed…d7cb | 22/100Early signal | Sports +5.6¢ [+2.8¢ · n=24329] | 4864 | June 9, 2026 |
| 110 | Rank 110: 0x1f03…b1be | 21/100Early signal | — | 18 | June 10, 2026 |
| 111 | Rank 111: 0xa8c6…44e8 | 20/100Early signal | Crypto +2.0¢ [+1.2¢ · n=809] | 733 | June 10, 2026 |
| 112 | Rank 112: 0xd039…2532 | 20/100Early signal | Sports +3.5¢ [−0.2¢ · n=234] | 212 | June 6, 2026 |
| 113 | Rank 113: 0x226b…cad6 | 20/100Early signal | Sports +9.0¢ [−25.8¢ · n=783] | 89 | May 12, 2026 |
| 114 | Rank 114: cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | 20/100Early signal | Politics −1.0¢ [−5.1¢ · n=4353] | 747 | June 10, 2026 |