Polymarket wallet 0x6bab…1292
#7 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Skill verdict
39/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +6.8¢ per $1 share (95% low +3.0¢) over n=2102 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 2.68 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?”
Bought No at 80.8¢ · stake $529.3k · profit $121.3k · resolved July 1, 2026
“Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?”
Bought Yes at 83.0¢ · stake $27.6k · profit $41.9k · resolved December 31, 2025
“MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?”
Bought Yes at 44.3¢ · stake $25.9k · profit $32.9k · resolved December 9, 2025
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +6.8¢ | +3.0¢ … +10.2¢ | 2102 | $3.5M |
| Politics | all-time | +1.7¢ | −0.4¢ … +3.9¢ | 964 | $2.1M |
| Crypto | 90d | +13.1¢ | +4.9¢ … +17.3¢ | 651 | $967.9k |
Activity
1356 resolved markets · total cost basis $29.3M · last trade June 10, 2026
Realized PnL $1.1M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0x6bab…1292 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292) ranks #7 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 39/100 (Moderate evidence) across 1356 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).