Polymarket wallet 0x68c2…1711
#23 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711
Skill verdict
30/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +2.2¢ per $1 share (95% low −1.7¢) over n=733 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 2.03 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?”
Bought Yes at 48.9¢ · stake $23.9k · profit $25.5k · resolved February 23, 2025
“Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?”
Bought No at 65.9¢ · stake $40.9k · profit $20.1k · resolved February 1, 2026
“India x Pakistan ceasefire announced before June?”
Bought Yes at 30.1¢ · stake $4.3k · profit $10.3k · resolved May 31, 2025
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +2.2¢ | −1.7¢ … +7.8¢ | 733 | $112.7k |
| Politics | 90d | +2.5¢ | −0.2¢ … +5.4¢ | 504 | $84.6k |
Activity
2260 resolved markets · total cost basis $12.7M · last trade June 9, 2026
Realized PnL $368.9k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
Follow this wallet in real time
Get a Telegram alert the moment this wallet opens or closes a position — free to start, no card required.
Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0x68c2…1711 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711) ranks #23 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 30/100 (Moderate evidence) across 2260 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).