Polymarket wallet 0xaa98…4a57
#37 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xaa98a4d9f524d1076b071dce22a3b6c753c24a57
Skill verdict
26/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +14.2¢ per $1 share (95% low +5.9¢) over n=1231 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.64 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?”
Bought No at 56.4¢ · stake $23.2k · profit $19.5k · resolved December 31, 2025
“Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December?”
Bought No at 74.5¢ · stake $33.8k · profit $12.0k · resolved December 31, 2024
“Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November?”
Bought No at 77.8¢ · stake $17.9k · profit $11.5k · resolved November 30, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +14.2¢ | +5.9¢ … +22.3¢ | 1231 | $358.2k |
Activity
154 resolved markets · total cost basis $808.4k · last trade February 3, 2025
Realized PnL $118.3k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xaa98…4a57 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xaa98a4d9f524d1076b071dce22a3b6c753c24a57) ranks #37 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 26/100 (Moderate evidence) across 154 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).