Polymarket wallet 0xc47b…d74f
#38 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xc47b42777a613554f2eecf76eff2f54e54d9d74f
Skill verdict
26/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge −2.4¢ per $1 share (95% low −13.0¢) over n=1974 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.39 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Trump wins every swing state?”
Bought No at 25.0¢ · stake $15.8k · profit $47.4k · resolved November 3, 2024
“Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?”
Bought No at 39.8¢ · stake $19.9k · profit $30.0k · resolved November 5, 2024
“Will Trump win 7 swing states?”
Bought No at 21.0¢ · stake $1.7k · profit $6.4k · resolved November 3, 2024
Activity
34 resolved markets · total cost basis $806.2k · last trade November 12, 2024
Realized PnL −$39.1k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xc47b…d74f a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xc47b42777a613554f2eecf76eff2f54e54d9d74f) ranks #38 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 26/100 (Moderate evidence) across 34 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).