comical-3278221 — Polymarket wallet 0x5ba1…1171
#2 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x5ba14fa6711907d8f34b7903a94fb533a0c61171
Skill verdict
53/100 · Strong evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +9.6¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.7¢) over n=572 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 3.25 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Trump wins every swing state?”
Bought Yes at 20.7¢ · stake $29.9k · profit $115.4k · resolved November 5, 2024
“GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?”
Bought Yes at 8.4¢ · stake $2.8k · profit $31.8k · resolved January 31, 2025
“Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?”
Bought Yes at 55.3¢ · stake $26.9k · profit $21.1k · resolved November 5, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +9.6¢ | +1.7¢ … +19.9¢ | 572 | $296.7k |
Activity
126 resolved markets · total cost basis $546.9k · last trade May 19, 2026
Realized PnL $305.1k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is comical-3278221 a skilled Polymarket trader?
comical-3278221 (0x5ba14fa6711907d8f34b7903a94fb533a0c61171) ranks #2 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 53/100 (Strong evidence) across 126 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).