sweetspea — Polymarket wallet 0x6b88…9856
#6 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x6b88b6a431c5ec9b3afdb76e69393d0404909856
Skill verdict
40/100 · Strong evidence (all-time)
Last 90 days: 29/100 · Moderate evidence
Best category: Politics — edge +24.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +19.7¢) over n=2670 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.99 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 57.7¢ · stake $82.5k · profit $60.6k · resolved November 3, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 53.4¢ · stake $48.5k · profit $42.4k · resolved November 5, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 53.1¢ · stake $36.3k · profit $32.1k · resolved November 3, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +24.9¢ | +19.7¢ … +50.4¢ | 2670 | $1.2M |
Activity
59 resolved markets · total cost basis $1.2M · last trade June 4, 2026
Realized PnL $484.3k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is sweetspea a skilled Polymarket trader?
sweetspea (0x6b88b6a431c5ec9b3afdb76e69393d0404909856) ranks #6 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 40/100 (Strong evidence) across 59 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).