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sweetspea — Polymarket wallet 0x6b88…9856

#6 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x6b88b6a431c5ec9b3afdb76e69393d0404909856

Skill verdict

40/100Strong evidence (all-time)

Last 90 days: 29/100 · Moderate evidence

Best category Politics — edge +24.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +19.7¢) over n=2670 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 1.99 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 57.7¢· stake $82.5k· profit $60.6k· November 3, 2024

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 53.4¢· stake $48.5k· profit $42.4k· November 5, 2024

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 53.1¢· stake $36.3k· profit $32.1k· November 3, 2024

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+24.9¢+19.7¢ … +50.4¢2670$1.2M

Activity

Resolved markets

59

Cost basis

$1.2M

Last trade

June 4, 2026

Realized PnL

$484.3k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is sweetspea a skilled Polymarket trader?

sweetspea (0x6b88b6a431c5ec9b3afdb76e69393d0404909856) ranks #6 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 40/100 (Strong evidence) across 59 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).