Polymarket wallet 0x8857…c270
#5 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x885783760858e1bd5dd09a3c3f916cfa251ac270
Skill verdict
40/100 · Strong evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +50.6¢ per $1 share (95% low +40.4¢) over n=8814 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 4.42 · q = 0.062
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 63.7¢ · stake $3.3M · profit $1.9M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought No at 33.6¢ · stake $780.3k · profit $1.6M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought Yes at 30.0¢ · stake $393.3k · profit $920.9k · resolved November 5, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +50.6¢ | +40.4¢ … +65.5¢ | 8814 | $6.6M |
Activity
14 resolved markets · total cost basis $7.1M · last trade November 6, 2024
Realized PnL $7.6M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x8857…c270 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x885783760858e1bd5dd09a3c3f916cfa251ac270) ranks #5 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 40/100 (Strong evidence) across 14 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).