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Polymarket wallet 0x8857…c270

#5 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x885783760858e1bd5dd09a3c3f916cfa251ac270

Skill verdict

40/100Strong evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +50.6¢ per $1 share (95% low +40.4¢) over n=8814 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 4.42 · q = 0.062

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 63.7¢· stake $3.3M· profit $1.9M· November 5, 2024

“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”

Bought No @ 33.6¢· stake $780.3k· profit $1.6M· November 5, 2024

“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”

Bought Yes @ 30.0¢· stake $393.3k· profit $920.9k· November 5, 2024

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+50.6¢+40.4¢ … +65.5¢8814$6.6M

Activity

Resolved markets

14

Cost basis

$7.1M

Last trade

November 6, 2024

Realized PnL

$7.6M

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x8857…c270 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x885783760858e1bd5dd09a3c3f916cfa251ac270) ranks #5 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 40/100 (Strong evidence) across 14 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).