Polymarket wallet 0xa933…6077
#4 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xa933dcd0acff00851abad8306065f6fdc9676077
Skill verdict
44/100 · Strong evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Calibrated-null skill z = 5.94 · q = 0.000
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?”
Bought Yes at 2.4¢ · stake $509 · profit $20.9k · resolved November 12, 2024
“Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?”
Bought No at 83.0¢ · stake $3.5k · profit $719 · resolved November 6, 2024
“Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?”
Bought No at 72.0¢ · stake $1.4k · profit $560 · resolved November 11, 2024
Activity
7 resolved markets · total cost basis $7.0k · last trade November 15, 2024
Realized PnL $22.8k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xa933…6077 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xa933dcd0acff00851abad8306065f6fdc9676077) ranks #4 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 44/100 (Strong evidence) across 7 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).