Polymarket wallet 0x41f2…eecf
#27 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x41f2899da8ccf8d08b7ebe6573b2a1a816f7eecf
Skill verdict
29/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +12.8¢ per $1 share (95% low −0.5¢) over n=311 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.25 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104”
Bought Yes at 16.6¢ · stake $4.6k · profit $18.4k · resolved November 4, 2024
“2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104”
Bought Yes at 18.1¢ · stake $2.7k · profit $12.3k · resolved November 7, 2024
“Trump wins 312-226 - swing state sweep ”
Bought No at 12.2¢ · stake $1.8k · profit $11.0k · resolved November 7, 2024
Activity
18 resolved markets · total cost basis $34.4k · last trade January 13, 2026
Realized PnL $55.0k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x41f2…eecf a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x41f2899da8ccf8d08b7ebe6573b2a1a816f7eecf) ranks #27 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 29/100 (Moderate evidence) across 18 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).