Polymarket wallet 0x2378…5fcb
#26 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x23786fdad0073692157c6d7dc81f281843a35fcb
Skill verdict
29/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +47.8¢ per $1 share (95% low +37.7¢) over n=14748 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 3.17 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 64.1¢ · stake $3.3M · profit $1.9M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought No at 34.4¢ · stake $765.9k · profit $1.5M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 46.8¢ · stake $547.5k · profit $771.9k · resolved November 5, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +47.8¢ | +37.7¢ … +63.9¢ | 14748 | $5.8M |
Activity
14 resolved markets · total cost basis $6.1M · last trade November 6, 2024
Realized PnL $5.7M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x2378…5fcb a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x23786fdad0073692157c6d7dc81f281843a35fcb) ranks #26 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 29/100 (Moderate evidence) across 14 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).