Polymarket wallet 0x19f2…0cad
#25 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x19f26ee3619f34e80e61f010c4b4ce5775f30cad
Skill verdict
30/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.52 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET”
Bought Up at 50.0¢ · stake $9.2k · profit $9.2k · resolved October 19, 2025
“Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET”
Bought Down at 50.0¢ · stake $4.6k · profit $4.6k · resolved October 19, 2025
“Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET”
Bought Down at 50.0¢ · stake $2.3k · profit $2.3k · resolved October 19, 2025
Activity
23 resolved markets · total cost basis $18.6k · last trade January 27, 2026
Realized PnL $16.1k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x19f2…0cad a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x19f26ee3619f34e80e61f010c4b4ce5775f30cad) ranks #25 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 30/100 (Moderate evidence) across 23 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).