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Polymarket wallet 0x382c…a0d7

#107 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x382caa87e714afb16c2c8b9e2fc023d4b6b2a0d7

Skill verdict

25/100Moderate evidence (last 90 days)

Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.

Best category Crypto — edge +0.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −0.6¢) over n=773 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.20 · q = 0.812

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?”

Bought Yes @ 76.0¢· stake $5.0k· profit $944· May 19, 2026

“Maduro out by March 31, 2026?”

Bought Yes @ 43.6¢· stake $218· profit $282· March 31, 2026

“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?”

Bought Yes @ 47.0¢· stake $235· profit $265· June 30, 2026

Activity

Resolved markets

96

Cost basis

$679.0k

Last trade

June 5, 2026

Realized PnL

$43.9k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x382c…a0d7 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x382caa87e714afb16c2c8b9e2fc023d4b6b2a0d7) ranks #107 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 96 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).