Polymarket wallet 0x382c…a0d7
#107 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x382caa87e714afb16c2c8b9e2fc023d4b6b2a0d7
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +0.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −0.6¢) over n=773 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.20 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?”
Bought Yes at 76.0¢ · stake $5.0k · profit $944 · resolved May 19, 2026
“Maduro out by March 31, 2026?”
Bought Yes at 43.6¢ · stake $218 · profit $282 · resolved March 31, 2026
“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?”
Bought Yes at 47.0¢ · stake $235 · profit $265 · resolved June 30, 2026
Activity
96 resolved markets · total cost basis $679.0k · last trade June 5, 2026
Realized PnL $43.9k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x382c…a0d7 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x382caa87e714afb16c2c8b9e2fc023d4b6b2a0d7) ranks #107 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 96 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).