Polymarket wallet 0xb100…6461
#108 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Skill verdict
22/100 · Early signal (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +2.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.1¢) over n=2609 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.96 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?”
Bought Yes at 82.9¢ · stake $67.5k · profit $13.8k · resolved December 31, 2026
“MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?”
Bought Yes at 75.0¢ · stake $51.9k · profit $8.9k · resolved January 1, 2027
“LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner”
Bought G2 Esports at 57.9¢ · stake $10.8k · profit $7.8k · resolved May 8, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +1.9¢ | +0.6¢ … +3.3¢ | 2974 | $752.6k |
| Crypto | all-time | +1.7¢ | +0.5¢ … +2.7¢ | 8781 | $2.7M |
| Crypto | 90d | +2.9¢ | +1.1¢ … +6.5¢ | 2609 | $1.1M |
| Sports | 90d | +1.6¢ | −0.0¢ … +5.2¢ | 368 | $112.2k |
| Politics | 90d | +5.1¢ | −2.3¢ … +17.3¢ | 161 | $14.4k |
Activity
683 resolved markets · total cost basis $9.4M · last trade June 10, 2026
Realized PnL $455.4k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0xb100…6461 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461) ranks #108 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 22/100 (Early signal) across 683 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).