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Polymarket wallet 0xb100…6461

#108 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461

Skill verdict

22/100Early signal (last 90 days)

Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.

Best category Crypto — edge +2.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.1¢) over n=2609 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.96 · q = 0.812

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?”

Bought Yes @ 82.9¢· stake $67.5k· profit $13.8k· December 31, 2026

“MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?”

Bought Yes @ 75.0¢· stake $51.9k· profit $8.9k· January 1, 2027

“LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner”

Bought G2 Esports @ 57.9¢· stake $10.8k· profit $7.8k· May 8, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+1.9¢+0.6¢ … +3.3¢2974$752.6k
Cryptoall-time+1.7¢+0.5¢ … +2.7¢8781$2.7M
Crypto90d+2.9¢+1.1¢ … +6.5¢2609$1.1M
Sports90d+1.6¢−0.0¢ … +5.2¢368$112.2k
Politics90d+5.1¢−2.3¢ … +17.3¢161$14.4k

Activity

Resolved markets

683

Cost basis

$9.4M

Last trade

June 10, 2026

Realized PnL

$455.4k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xb100…6461 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461) ranks #108 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 22/100 (Early signal) across 683 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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#1070x382c…a0d7#1090xd1ed…d7cb#70x6bab…1292#230x68c2…1711

Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).