Polymarket wallet 0x44c1…ebc1
#106 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Skill verdict
26/100 · Moderate evidence (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +6.2¢ per $1 share (95% low +3.0¢) over n=215 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.58 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”
Bought No at 82.9¢ · stake $132.6k · profit $37.9k · resolved June 2, 2026
“Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?”
Bought No at 36.9¢ · stake $8.8k · profit $18.9k · resolved May 22, 2026
“Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?”
Bought No at 80.2¢ · stake $73.6k · profit $16.8k · resolved July 31, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +4.6¢ | +1.8¢ … +6.7¢ | 632 | $4.1M |
| Crypto | 90d | +6.2¢ | +3.0¢ … +7.7¢ | 215 | $1.9M |
| Politics | 90d | +3.3¢ | −1.4¢ … +8.1¢ | 586 | $758.2k |
| Culture | 90d | +4.6¢ | −0.7¢ … +12.9¢ | 534 | $288.9k |
Activity
419 resolved markets · total cost basis $19.7M · last trade June 10, 2026
Realized PnL $875.8k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x44c1…ebc1 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1) ranks #106 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 26/100 (Moderate evidence) across 419 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).