Polymarket wallet 0x9c16…09cb
#105 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x9c16127eccf031df45461ef1e04b52ea286a09cb
Skill verdict
29/100 · Moderate evidence (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.97 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?”
Bought Yes at 6.0¢ · stake $6.5k · profit $101.6k · resolved April 13, 2026
“Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5”
Bought Over at 46.0¢ · stake $38.6k · profit $45.4k · resolved March 18, 2026
“Will Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?”
Bought Yes at 28.0¢ · stake $5.6k · profit $14.4k · resolved March 26, 2026
Activity
13 resolved markets · total cost basis $170.8k · last trade April 9, 2026
Realized PnL −$856.5k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x9c16…09cb a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x9c16127eccf031df45461ef1e04b52ea286a09cb) ranks #105 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 29/100 (Moderate evidence) across 13 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).