Polymarket wallet 0xf981…bff6
#76 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xf9819e99ea114cd09d7bae806d8b20e9ad69bff6
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge −1.8¢ per $1 share (95% low −3.3¢) over n=7036 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.03 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104”
Bought Yes at 62.5¢ · stake $4.3k · profit $2.8k · resolved November 3, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 58.0¢ · stake $32.1k · profit $1.8k · resolved November 3, 2024
“Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? ”
Bought Yes at 57.9¢ · stake $2.0k · profit $194 · resolved November 3, 2024
Activity
29 resolved markets · total cost basis $466.5k · last trade November 6, 2024
Realized PnL −$17.2k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xf981…bff6 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xf9819e99ea114cd09d7bae806d8b20e9ad69bff6) ranks #76 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 29 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).