Polymarket wallet 0x1823…84d8
#9 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x1823757d22022f81a8fa1536d63101fe458884d8
Skill verdict
35/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +27.9¢ per $1 share (95% low −5.1¢) over n=805 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.43 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought No at 28.1¢ · stake $241.2k · profit $613.4k · resolved November 5, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +27.9¢ | −5.1¢ … +32.7¢ | 805 | $2.0M |
Activity
18 resolved markets · total cost basis $462.7k · last trade March 1, 2026
Realized PnL $1.0M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
Follow this wallet in real time
Get a Telegram alert the moment this wallet opens or closes a position — free to start, no card required.
Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0x1823…84d8 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x1823757d22022f81a8fa1536d63101fe458884d8) ranks #9 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 35/100 (Moderate evidence) across 18 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).