Polymarket wallet 0xab1c…aadd
#101 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xab1ce6d9a41d618aa687222744ec30d5be94aadd
Skill verdict
35/100 · Moderate evidence (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Sports — edge +5.2¢ per $1 share (95% low −13.4¢) over n=350 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.17 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics ”
Bought 76ers at 28.8¢ · stake $3.4k · profit $8.3k · resolved May 4, 2026
“Spread: Pistons (-3.5)”
Bought Pistons at 48.0¢ · stake $3.8k · profit $4.2k · resolved May 5, 2026
“Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5”
Bought Over at 44.0¢ · stake $1.3k · profit $1.7k · resolved May 3, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 90d | +5.2¢ | −13.4¢ … +28.7¢ | 350 | $35.9k |
| Politics | 90d | −10.2¢ | −25.6¢ … +3.1¢ | 210 | $18.0k |
Activity
32 resolved markets · total cost basis $220.8k · last trade June 6, 2026
Realized PnL −$258.7k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xab1c…aadd a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xab1ce6d9a41d618aa687222744ec30d5be94aadd) ranks #101 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 35/100 (Moderate evidence) across 32 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).