ColdW — Polymarket wallet 0x2765…7ee4
#100 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x27653cd5aab78f00563f50a03c12504a9b877ee4
Skill verdict
43/100 · Strong evidence (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Sports — edge +1.7¢ per $1 share (95% low −3.0¢) over n=3601 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 2.02 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A”
Bought BetBoom Team at 28.0¢ · stake $3.4k · profit $9.5k · resolved May 13, 2026
“Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs”
Bought Spirit at 62.8¢ · stake $15.7k · profit $9.3k · resolved April 18, 2026
“Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B”
Bought 9z at 25.1¢ · stake $2.6k · profit $7.6k · resolved March 21, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 90d | +1.7¢ | −3.0¢ … +6.6¢ | 3601 | $774.8k |
Activity
748 resolved markets · total cost basis $1.8M · last trade June 9, 2026
Realized PnL $200.1k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is ColdW a skilled Polymarket trader?
ColdW (0x27653cd5aab78f00563f50a03c12504a9b877ee4) ranks #100 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 43/100 (Strong evidence) across 748 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).