0tea — Polymarket wallet 0x7eff…7196
#21 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x7eff44d3a998e21e1aa014a9fe89ef5f71a77196
Skill verdict
31/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +17.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +9.6¢) over n=330 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.79 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought No at 61.1¢ · stake $42.1k · profit $26.4k · resolved November 4, 2024
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought Yes at 33.5¢ · stake $4.6k · profit $9.1k · resolved November 6, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 26.9¢ · stake $699 · profit $1.9k · resolved November 5, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +17.9¢ | +9.6¢ … +22.3¢ | 330 | $336.7k |
Activity
30 resolved markets · total cost basis $146.0k · last trade March 14, 2026
Realized PnL $80.3k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is 0tea a skilled Polymarket trader?
0tea (0x7eff44d3a998e21e1aa014a9fe89ef5f71a77196) ranks #21 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 31/100 (Moderate evidence) across 30 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).