Polymarket wallet 0x78b9…6b76
#16 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x78b9ac44a6d7d7a076c14e0ad518b301b63c6b76
Skill verdict
32/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +52.2¢ per $1 share (95% low +39.6¢) over n=6077 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 3.46 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 41.0¢ · stake $2.6M · profit $3.8M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought No at 41.1¢ · stake $975.7k · profit $1.5M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 62.6¢ · stake $2.1M · profit $1.2M · resolved November 5, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +52.2¢ | +39.6¢ … +58.5¢ | 6077 | $7.0M |
Activity
11 resolved markets · total cost basis $7.5M · last trade November 6, 2024
Realized PnL $8.5M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x78b9…6b76 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x78b9ac44a6d7d7a076c14e0ad518b301b63c6b76) ranks #16 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 32/100 (Moderate evidence) across 11 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).