Polymarket wallet 0xd8ca…7229
#17 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xd8cae792b3d84d6888080401423e973337287229
Skill verdict
32/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Finance — edge +0.4¢ per $1 share (95% low −11.0¢) over n=141 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.06 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? ”
Bought Yes at 39.2¢ · stake $16.8k · profit $29.2k · resolved August 31, 2025
“Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?”
Bought Yes at 75.1¢ · stake $26.1k · profit $9.4k · resolved April 29, 2025
“Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?”
Bought Yes at 70.4¢ · stake $16.7k · profit $7.7k · resolved December 31, 2025
Activity
189 resolved markets · total cost basis $860.6k · last trade May 23, 2026
Realized PnL −$33.9k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xd8ca…7229 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xd8cae792b3d84d6888080401423e973337287229) ranks #17 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 32/100 (Moderate evidence) across 189 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).