Polymarket wallet 0x4e56…dee1
#18 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x4e56f1ddaa8f5328036c449b89e731ec748cdee1
Skill verdict
31/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +1.3¢ per $1 share (95% low −4.0¢) over n=2619 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.09 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?”
Bought Yes at 19.0¢ · stake $20.4k · profit $102.5k · resolved September 4, 2024
“Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?”
Bought Yes at 61.9¢ · stake $76.7k · profit $42.1k · resolved July 20, 2024
“Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?”
Bought No at 84.3¢ · stake $250.9k · profit $31.9k · resolved August 22, 2024
Activity
422 resolved markets · total cost basis $5.4M · last trade May 9, 2026
Realized PnL $131.2k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x4e56…dee1 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x4e56f1ddaa8f5328036c449b89e731ec748cdee1) ranks #18 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 31/100 (Moderate evidence) across 422 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).