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Polymarket wallet 0xabd2…bcf5

#15 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xabd22fa45cd03ba5b5261282b68a2618cfb8bcf5

Skill verdict

33/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Calibrated-null skill z = 3.60 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?”

Bought No @ 60.3¢· stake $2.8k· profit $1.0k· June 30, 2026

“Will Trump say "Eight and a Quarter War" this week? (January 18)”

Bought No @ 60.3¢· stake $2.2k· profit $810· January 18, 2026

“Will "Jensen" or "Huang" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?”

Bought Yes @ 57.3¢· stake $560· profit $329· January 9, 2026

Activity

Resolved markets

131

Cost basis

$21.3k

Last trade

June 7, 2026

Realized PnL

$44.1k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xabd2…bcf5 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xabd22fa45cd03ba5b5261282b68a2618cfb8bcf5) ranks #15 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 33/100 (Moderate evidence) across 131 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).