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tdrhrhhd — Polymarket wallet 0xd7f8…89e4

#44 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4

Skill verdict

25/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +22.3¢ per $1 share (95% low +16.0¢) over n=1658 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.57 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 55.0¢· stake $1.9M· profit $1.3M· November 5, 2024

“Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?”

Bought Yes @ 41.8¢· stake $405.5k· profit $571.2k· December 31, 2026

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 53.7¢· stake $713.7k· profit $493.3k· November 6, 2024

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+22.3¢+16.0¢ … +32.6¢1658$7.1M

Activity

Resolved markets

57

Cost basis

$4.4M

Last trade

May 30, 2026

Realized PnL

$2.8M

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is tdrhrhhd a skilled Polymarket trader?

tdrhrhhd (0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4) ranks #44 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 57 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).