tdrhrhhd — Polymarket wallet 0xd7f8…89e4
#44 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +22.3¢ per $1 share (95% low +16.0¢) over n=1658 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.57 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 55.0¢ · stake $1.9M · profit $1.3M · resolved November 5, 2024
“Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?”
Bought Yes at 41.8¢ · stake $405.5k · profit $571.2k · resolved December 31, 2026
“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”
Bought Yes at 53.7¢ · stake $713.7k · profit $493.3k · resolved November 6, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +22.3¢ | +16.0¢ … +32.6¢ | 1658 | $7.1M |
Activity
57 resolved markets · total cost basis $4.4M · last trade May 30, 2026
Realized PnL $2.8M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
Follow tdrhrhhd in real time
Get a Telegram alert the moment this wallet opens or closes a position — free to start, no card required.
Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is tdrhrhhd a skilled Polymarket trader?
tdrhrhhd (0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4) ranks #44 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 57 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).