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Polymarket wallet 0xcf0d…132d

#43 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xcf0d7f69cf162918b33fc1ea7449583fa537132d

Skill verdict

25/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +6.5¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.5¢) over n=8518 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.87 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?”

Bought Yes @ 72.0¢· stake $171.0k· profit $121.1k· May 18, 2025

“Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?”

Bought No @ 63.1¢· stake $77.3k· profit $92.8k· May 18, 2025

“Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?”

Bought No @ 52.4¢· stake $53.7k· profit $46.5k· November 6, 2024

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+6.5¢+1.5¢ … +11.5¢8518$5.6M

Activity

Resolved markets

200

Cost basis

$9.7M

Last trade

December 20, 2025

Realized PnL

$781.0k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xcf0d…132d a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xcf0d7f69cf162918b33fc1ea7449583fa537132d) ranks #43 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 200 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).