Polymarket wallet 0xcf0d…132d
#43 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xcf0d7f69cf162918b33fc1ea7449583fa537132d
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +6.5¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.5¢) over n=8518 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.87 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?”
Bought Yes at 72.0¢ · stake $171.0k · profit $121.1k · resolved May 18, 2025
“Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?”
Bought No at 63.1¢ · stake $77.3k · profit $92.8k · resolved May 18, 2025
“Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?”
Bought No at 52.4¢ · stake $53.7k · profit $46.5k · resolved November 6, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +6.5¢ | +1.5¢ … +11.5¢ | 8518 | $5.6M |
Activity
200 resolved markets · total cost basis $9.7M · last trade December 20, 2025
Realized PnL $781.0k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xcf0d…132d a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xcf0d7f69cf162918b33fc1ea7449583fa537132d) ranks #43 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 200 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).