Polymarket wallet 0xfffe…f52c
#42 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xfffe4013adfe325c6e02d36dc66e091f5476f52c
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +12.6¢ per $1 share (95% low +0.1¢) over n=236 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.05 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”
Bought No at 39.7¢ · stake $527.2k · profit $802.3k · resolved November 5, 2024
“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”
Bought No at 47.7¢ · stake $495.6k · profit $433.5k · resolved November 6, 2024
“Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?”
Bought No at 64.4¢ · stake $290.9k · profit $212.6k · resolved September 30, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +12.6¢ | +0.1¢ … +18.7¢ | 236 | $1.6M |
Activity
136 resolved markets · total cost basis $93.0M · last trade November 6, 2024
Realized PnL −$328.4k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xfffe…f52c a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xfffe4013adfe325c6e02d36dc66e091f5476f52c) ranks #42 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 136 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).