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Polymarket wallet 0xcfda…bede

#65 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xcfdac27a4deacf1cdd26bd425dc68874ce97bede

Skill verdict

25/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Sports — edge +19.3¢ per $1 share (95% low +9.4¢) over n=1217 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.88 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?”

Bought Yes @ 10.3¢· stake $5.0k· profit $45.5k· December 12, 2024

“Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?”

Bought Yes @ 48.1¢· stake $23.1k· profit $25.0k· February 9, 2025

“Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?”

Bought No @ 70.2¢· stake $44.5k· profit $18.9k· July 20, 2024

Activity

Resolved markets

182

Cost basis

$860.1k

Last trade

December 30, 2025

Realized PnL

$87.5k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xcfda…bede a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xcfdac27a4deacf1cdd26bd425dc68874ce97bede) ranks #65 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 182 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).