Polymarket wallet 0xcfda…bede
#65 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xcfdac27a4deacf1cdd26bd425dc68874ce97bede
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Sports — edge +19.3¢ per $1 share (95% low +9.4¢) over n=1217 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.88 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 14 of the World Chess Championship?”
Bought Yes at 10.3¢ · stake $5.0k · profit $45.5k · resolved December 12, 2024
“Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?”
Bought Yes at 48.1¢ · stake $23.1k · profit $25.0k · resolved February 9, 2025
“Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?”
Bought No at 70.2¢ · stake $44.5k · profit $18.9k · resolved July 20, 2024
Activity
182 resolved markets · total cost basis $860.1k · last trade December 30, 2025
Realized PnL $87.5k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
Follow this wallet in real time
Get a Telegram alert the moment this wallet opens or closes a position — free to start, no card required.
Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0xcfda…bede a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xcfdac27a4deacf1cdd26bd425dc68874ce97bede) ranks #65 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 182 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).