Polymarket wallet 0x3b9a…83d6
#87 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x3b9aa6ac92feffba19bb7bc57fd677ba9aa683d6
Skill verdict
24/100 · Early signal (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.00 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Araujo vs. Silva”
Bought Araujo at 30.0¢ · stake $3 · profit $7 · resolved November 12, 2024
Activity
22 resolved markets · total cost basis $54.5k · last trade November 14, 2024
Realized PnL −$11 — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x3b9a…83d6 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x3b9aa6ac92feffba19bb7bc57fd677ba9aa683d6) ranks #87 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 24/100 (Early signal) across 22 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).