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Polymarket wallet 0x16f9…99e3

#92 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x16f91db2592924cfed6e03b7e5cb5bb1e32299e3

Skill verdict

23/100Early signal (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +44.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +37.5¢) over n=7274 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 2.65 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 62.6¢· stake $3.4M· profit $2.0M· November 5, 2024

“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”

Bought No @ 39.1¢· stake $707.3k· profit $1.1M· November 5, 2024

“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 39.6¢· stake $366.2k· profit $560.4k· November 5, 2024

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+44.9¢+37.5¢ … +60.8¢7274$4.8M

Activity

Resolved markets

15

Cost basis

$5.1M

Last trade

November 1, 2024

Realized PnL

$4.0M

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x16f9…99e3 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x16f91db2592924cfed6e03b7e5cb5bb1e32299e3) ranks #92 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 23/100 (Early signal) across 15 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).