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Polymarket wallet 0x2274…af9b

#93 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x22749c40f50d24a55f96381800359f5e9612af9b

Skill verdict

23/100Early signal (all-time)

Last 90 days: 23/100 · Early signal

Best category Crypto — edge +25.9¢ per $1 share (95% low −10.6¢) over n=367 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 1.53 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET”

Bought Down @ 50.0¢· stake $11.7k· profit $11.7k· March 25, 2026

“Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET”

Bought Up @ 54.3¢· stake $3.8k· profit $3.2k· March 26, 2026

“Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5”

Bought Over @ 54.0¢· stake $3.8k· profit $3.2k· March 25, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Crypto90d+25.9¢−4.1¢ … +44.3¢367$40.5k

Activity

Resolved markets

11

Cost basis

$44.3k

Last trade

March 26, 2026

Realized PnL

$22.6k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x2274…af9b a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x22749c40f50d24a55f96381800359f5e9612af9b) ranks #93 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 23/100 (Early signal) across 11 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).