Polymarket wallet 0x2274…af9b
#93 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x22749c40f50d24a55f96381800359f5e9612af9b
Skill verdict
23/100 · Early signal (all-time)
Last 90 days: 23/100 · Early signal
Best category: Crypto — edge +25.9¢ per $1 share (95% low −10.6¢) over n=367 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.53 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET”
Bought Down at 50.0¢ · stake $11.7k · profit $11.7k · resolved March 25, 2026
“Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET”
Bought Up at 54.3¢ · stake $3.8k · profit $3.2k · resolved March 26, 2026
“Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5”
Bought Over at 54.0¢ · stake $3.8k · profit $3.2k · resolved March 25, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 90d | +25.9¢ | −4.1¢ … +44.3¢ | 367 | $40.5k |
Activity
11 resolved markets · total cost basis $44.3k · last trade March 26, 2026
Realized PnL $22.6k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x2274…af9b a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x22749c40f50d24a55f96381800359f5e9612af9b) ranks #93 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 23/100 (Early signal) across 11 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).