Polymarket wallet 0x4526…7a45
#53 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x4526964246242015bfa78c294033565be6797a45
Skill verdict
25/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +5.1¢ per $1 share (95% low +0.7¢) over n=833 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 2.06 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?”
Bought Yes at 67.8¢ · stake $2.8k · profit $1.7k · resolved October 29, 2024
“Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan town hall?”
Bought No at 8.4¢ · stake $103 · profit $1.3k · resolved September 27, 2024
“Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?”
Bought No at 41.5¢ · stake $890 · profit $1.3k · resolved November 4, 2024
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +5.1¢ | +0.7¢ … +10.2¢ | 833 | $92.1k |
| Crypto | all-time | +4.9¢ | +1.5¢ … +13.4¢ | 138 | $62.6k |
| Culture | 90d | +2.8¢ | −4.7¢ … +11.2¢ | 314 | $60.4k |
Activity
1091 resolved markets · total cost basis $1.3M · last trade June 6, 2026
Realized PnL $69.8k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0x4526…7a45 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x4526964246242015bfa78c294033565be6797a45) ranks #53 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 1091 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).