Polymarket wallet 0x226b…cad6
#113 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x226bf1220731af372b1e7d572959414f31b4cad6
Skill verdict
20/100 · Early signal (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Sports — edge +9.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −25.8¢) over n=783 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.20 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines”
Bought Michigan Wolverines at 73.7¢ · stake $516.9k · profit $184.5k · resolved April 7, 2026
“Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)”
Bought Michigan State Spartans at 47.0¢ · stake $40.5k · profit $45.7k · resolved March 21, 2026
“Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)”
Bought New York Mets at 34.7¢ · stake $12.9k · profit $24.3k · resolved March 26, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +7.8¢ | −1.6¢ … +14.0¢ | 197 | $25.2k |
| Sports | 90d | +9.0¢ | −25.8¢ … +40.5¢ | 783 | $68.0k |
Activity
89 resolved markets · total cost basis $2.0M · last trade May 12, 2026
Realized PnL $298.8k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0x226b…cad6 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x226bf1220731af372b1e7d572959414f31b4cad6) ranks #113 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 89 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).