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Polymarket wallet 0x226b…cad6

#113 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x226bf1220731af372b1e7d572959414f31b4cad6

Skill verdict

20/100Early signal (last 90 days)

Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.

Best category Sports — edge +9.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −25.8¢) over n=783 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = -0.20 · q = 0.812

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines”

Bought Michigan Wolverines @ 73.7¢· stake $516.9k· profit $184.5k· April 7, 2026

“Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)”

Bought Michigan State Spartans @ 47.0¢· stake $40.5k· profit $45.7k· March 21, 2026

“Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)”

Bought New York Mets @ 34.7¢· stake $12.9k· profit $24.3k· March 26, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+7.8¢−1.6¢ … +14.0¢197$25.2k
Sports90d+9.0¢−25.8¢ … +40.5¢783$68.0k

Activity

Resolved markets

89

Cost basis

$2.0M

Last trade

May 12, 2026

Realized PnL

$298.8k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x226b…cad6 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x226bf1220731af372b1e7d572959414f31b4cad6) ranks #113 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 89 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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#1120xd039…2532#114cowcat#280xe015…6ffd#300x5faf…27bb

Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).