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cowcat — Polymarket wallet 0x38e5…95e7

#114 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x38e59b36aae31b164200d0cad7c3fe5e0ee795e7

Skill verdict

20/100Early signal (last 90 days)

Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.

Best category Politics — edge −1.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −5.1¢) over n=4353 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.96 · q = 0.812

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?”

Bought Yes @ 47.4¢· stake $33.8k· profit $30.7k· December 31, 2026

“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?”

Bought Yes @ 18.6¢· stake $5.4k· profit $24.0k· March 31, 2026

“Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?”

Bought Yes @ 48.8¢· stake $10.4k· profit $14.1k· June 6, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politics90d−1.0¢−5.1¢ … +6.7¢4353$274.1k
Culture90d+3.7¢−0.1¢ … +9.5¢3629$105.4k

Activity

Resolved markets

747

Cost basis

$2.0M

Last trade

June 10, 2026

Realized PnL

$72.2k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is cowcat a skilled Polymarket trader?

cowcat (0x38e59b36aae31b164200d0cad7c3fe5e0ee795e7) ranks #114 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 747 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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#1130x226b…cad6#1zerosmart#2comical-3278221#50x8857…c270

Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).