cowcat — Polymarket wallet 0x38e5…95e7
#114 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x38e59b36aae31b164200d0cad7c3fe5e0ee795e7
Skill verdict
20/100 · Early signal (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Politics — edge −1.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −5.1¢) over n=4353 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.96 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?”
Bought Yes at 47.4¢ · stake $33.8k · profit $30.7k · resolved December 31, 2026
“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?”
Bought Yes at 18.6¢ · stake $5.4k · profit $24.0k · resolved March 31, 2026
“Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?”
Bought Yes at 48.8¢ · stake $10.4k · profit $14.1k · resolved June 6, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 90d | −1.0¢ | −5.1¢ … +6.7¢ | 4353 | $274.1k |
| Culture | 90d | +3.7¢ | −0.1¢ … +9.5¢ | 3629 | $105.4k |
Activity
747 resolved markets · total cost basis $2.0M · last trade June 10, 2026
Realized PnL $72.2k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is cowcat a skilled Polymarket trader?
cowcat (0x38e59b36aae31b164200d0cad7c3fe5e0ee795e7) ranks #114 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 747 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).