Polymarket wallet 0xd039…2532
#112 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xd0394bd0de8d901c3fde039a86bf08e6aa4a2532
Skill verdict
20/100 · Early signal (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Sports — edge +3.5¢ per $1 share (95% low −0.2¢) over n=234 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.77 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?”
Bought Yes at 34.5¢ · stake $28.2k · profit $55.4k · resolved June 30, 2026
“Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?”
Bought No at 82.4¢ · stake $7.5k · profit $2.7k · resolved May 15, 2026
“Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?”
Bought Yes at 75.3¢ · stake $12.7k · profit $2.1k · resolved December 31, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +2.4¢ | +0.6¢ … +4.0¢ | 870 | $314.7k |
| Sports | 90d | +3.5¢ | −0.2¢ … +8.0¢ | 234 | $148.0k |
| Crypto | 90d | +4.9¢ | +1.1¢ … +6.8¢ | 111 | $91.6k |
| Politics | 90d | −0.4¢ | −9.8¢ … +11.9¢ | 507 | $96.4k |
Activity
212 resolved markets · total cost basis $2.9M · last trade June 6, 2026
Realized PnL $93.8k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xd039…2532 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xd0394bd0de8d901c3fde039a86bf08e6aa4a2532) ranks #112 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 212 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).