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Polymarket wallet 0xd039…2532

#112 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xd0394bd0de8d901c3fde039a86bf08e6aa4a2532

Skill verdict

20/100Early signal (last 90 days)

Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.

Best category Sports — edge +3.5¢ per $1 share (95% low −0.2¢) over n=234 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.77 · q = 0.812

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?”

Bought Yes @ 34.5¢· stake $28.2k· profit $55.4k· June 30, 2026

“Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?”

Bought No @ 82.4¢· stake $7.5k· profit $2.7k· May 15, 2026

“Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?”

Bought Yes @ 75.3¢· stake $12.7k· profit $2.1k· December 31, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Cryptoall-time+2.4¢+0.6¢ … +4.0¢870$314.7k
Sports90d+3.5¢−0.2¢ … +8.0¢234$148.0k
Crypto90d+4.9¢+1.1¢ … +6.8¢111$91.6k
Politics90d−0.4¢−9.8¢ … +11.9¢507$96.4k

Activity

Resolved markets

212

Cost basis

$2.9M

Last trade

June 6, 2026

Realized PnL

$93.8k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xd039…2532 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xd0394bd0de8d901c3fde039a86bf08e6aa4a2532) ranks #112 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 212 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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#1110xa8c6…44e8#1130x226b…cad6#280xe015…6ffd#300x5faf…27bb

Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).