Polymarket wallet 0xa8c6…44e8
#111 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Skill verdict
20/100 · Early signal (last 90 days)
Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.
Best category: Crypto — edge +2.0¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.2¢) over n=809 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.11 · q = 0.812
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?”
Bought No at 76.7¢ · stake $106.6k · profit $12.4k · resolved December 31, 2026
“Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”
Bought No at 77.9¢ · stake $59.2k · profit $10.4k · resolved March 31, 2026
“Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?”
Bought No at 71.1¢ · stake $11.0k · profit $2.6k · resolved July 31, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | all-time | +2.2¢ | +1.0¢ … +3.7¢ | 2587 | $836.4k |
| Crypto | 90d | +2.0¢ | +1.2¢ … +4.8¢ | 809 | $312.5k |
| Politics | 90d | −0.5¢ | −6.3¢ … +3.0¢ | 1751 | $311.4k |
Activity
733 resolved markets · total cost basis $7.4M · last trade June 10, 2026
Realized PnL $98.5k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Start on Telegram →FAQ
Is wallet 0xa8c6…44e8 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8) ranks #111 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 733 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).