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Polymarket wallet 0xa8c6…44e8

#111 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8

Skill verdict

20/100Early signal (last 90 days)

Evidence is from the trailing 90-day window — no all-time row yet.

Best category Crypto — edge +2.0¢ per $1 share (95% low +1.2¢) over n=809 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.11 · q = 0.812

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?”

Bought No @ 76.7¢· stake $106.6k· profit $12.4k· December 31, 2026

“Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”

Bought No @ 77.9¢· stake $59.2k· profit $10.4k· March 31, 2026

“Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?”

Bought No @ 71.1¢· stake $11.0k· profit $2.6k· July 31, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Cryptoall-time+2.2¢+1.0¢ … +3.7¢2587$836.4k
Crypto90d+2.0¢+1.2¢ … +4.8¢809$312.5k
Politics90d−0.5¢−6.3¢ … +3.0¢1751$311.4k

Activity

Resolved markets

733

Cost basis

$7.4M

Last trade

June 10, 2026

Realized PnL

$98.5k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xa8c6…44e8 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8) ranks #111 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 20/100 (Early signal) across 733 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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#1100x1f03…b1be#1120xd039…2532#70x6bab…1292#230x68c2…1711

Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).