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Polymarket wallet 0x4ec2…e831

#73 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x4ec27427d305332da2e5147bab90202acf25e831

Skill verdict

25/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Sports — edge +0.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −0.1¢) over n=242 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 0.00 · q = 0.645

Activity

Resolved markets

35

Cost basis

$619.4k

Last trade

November 6, 2024

Realized PnL

−$0

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x4ec2…e831 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x4ec27427d305332da2e5147bab90202acf25e831) ranks #73 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 25/100 (Moderate evidence) across 35 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).