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Polymarket wallet 0xbaa2…2c73

#84 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73

Skill verdict

24/100Early signal (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +8.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +3.2¢) over n=926 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 1.48 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?”

Bought Yes @ 33.7¢· stake $40.7k· profit $85.1k· June 6, 2026

“France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?”

Bought No @ 66.5¢· stake $90.9k· profit $46.0k· March 31, 2026

“Iran strike on Israel by Friday?”

Bought Yes @ 65.1¢· stake $87.6k· profit $41.4k· June 13, 2025

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+8.9¢+3.2¢ … +14.9¢926$670.5k

Activity

Resolved markets

806

Cost basis

$37.9M

Last trade

June 6, 2026

Realized PnL

$1.2M

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0xbaa2…2c73 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73) ranks #84 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 24/100 (Early signal) across 806 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).