Polymarket wallet 0xbaa2…2c73
#84 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
Skill verdict
24/100 · Early signal (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +8.9¢ per $1 share (95% low +3.2¢) over n=926 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 1.48 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?”
Bought Yes at 33.7¢ · stake $40.7k · profit $85.1k · resolved June 6, 2026
“France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?”
Bought No at 66.5¢ · stake $90.9k · profit $46.0k · resolved March 31, 2026
“Iran strike on Israel by Friday?”
Bought Yes at 65.1¢ · stake $87.6k · profit $41.4k · resolved June 13, 2025
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | all-time | +8.9¢ | +3.2¢ … +14.9¢ | 926 | $670.5k |
Activity
806 resolved markets · total cost basis $37.9M · last trade June 6, 2026
Realized PnL $1.2M — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xbaa2…2c73 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73) ranks #84 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 24/100 (Early signal) across 806 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).