Polymarket wallet 0x5bbd…9ec2
#40 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0x5bbdda8c2447fd63f0e8dc8a3712352fc81b9ec2
Skill verdict
26/100 · Moderate evidence (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +3.9¢ per $1 share (95% low −14.1¢) over n=1682 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = -0.46 · q = 0.730
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?”
Bought Yes at 10.0¢ · stake $575 · profit $5.6k · resolved May 16, 2026
“Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?”
Bought Yes at 18.6¢ · stake $902 · profit $4.3k · resolved March 22, 2026
“Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?”
Bought No at 78.6¢ · stake $37.3k · profit $3.3k · resolved June 6, 2026
Category track record
| Category | Window | Edge / $1 | 95% CI | n resolved | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 90d | −0.0¢ | −8.7¢ … +8.5¢ | 370 | $31.6k |
Activity
50 resolved markets · total cost basis $655.9k · last trade June 4, 2026
Realized PnL $37.9k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0x5bbd…9ec2 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0x5bbdda8c2447fd63f0e8dc8a3712352fc81b9ec2) ranks #40 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 26/100 (Moderate evidence) across 50 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
Related wallets
Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).