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Polymarket wallet 0x5bbd…9ec2

#40 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x5bbdda8c2447fd63f0e8dc8a3712352fc81b9ec2

Skill verdict

26/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +3.9¢ per $1 share (95% low −14.1¢) over n=1682 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = -0.46 · q = 0.730

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?”

Bought Yes @ 10.0¢· stake $575· profit $5.6k· May 16, 2026

“Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?”

Bought Yes @ 18.6¢· stake $902· profit $4.3k· March 22, 2026

“Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?”

Bought No @ 78.6¢· stake $37.3k· profit $3.3k· June 6, 2026

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politics90d−0.0¢−8.7¢ … +8.5¢370$31.6k

Activity

Resolved markets

50

Cost basis

$655.9k

Last trade

June 4, 2026

Realized PnL

$37.9k

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x5bbd…9ec2 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x5bbdda8c2447fd63f0e8dc8a3712352fc81b9ec2) ranks #40 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 26/100 (Moderate evidence) across 50 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).