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Polymarket wallet 0x5668…5839

#11 of 114as of June 10, 2026Polymarket ↗

0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839

Skill verdict

34/100Moderate evidence (all-time)

No 90-day evidence window yet.

Best category Politics — edge +49.7¢ per $1 share (95% low +33.0¢) over n=16098 resolved trades.

Calibrated-null skill z = 3.62 · q = 0.645

Receipts — biggest verified wins

“Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 37.2¢· stake $4.3M· profit $7.4M· November 5, 2024

“Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”

Bought Yes @ 60.2¢· stake $8.8M· profit $5.7M· November 5, 2024

“Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?”

Bought No @ 37.9¢· stake $3.2M· profit $5.4M· November 5, 2024

Category track record

Per-category skill scores with confidence intervals
CategoryWindowEdge / $195% CInVolume
Politicsall-time+49.7¢+33.0¢ … +61.5¢16098$19.1M

Activity

Resolved markets

21

Cost basis

$19.7M

Last trade

November 13, 2024

Realized PnL

$21.0M

Realized PnL shown as context only — WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.

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FAQ

Is wallet 0x5668…5839 a skilled Polymarket trader?

This wallet (0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839) ranks #11 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 34/100 (Moderate evidence) across 21 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.

How is this confidence score computed?

It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.

How fresh is this data?

This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.

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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.

Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).