Polymarket wallet 0xf625…aeb8
#98 of 114 · as of June 10, 2026 · View on Polymarket →
0xf625adeacea7b6cf44b46d56a9c298789d44aeb8
Skill verdict
21/100 · Early signal (all-time)
No 90-day evidence window yet.
Best category: Politics — edge +26.0¢ per $1 share (95% low −7.4¢) over n=252 resolved trades.
Calibrated-null skill z = 0.41 · q = 0.645
Receipts — biggest verified wins
“2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104”
Bought Yes at 20.0¢ · stake $5.0k · profit $20.0k · resolved November 4, 2024
“2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104”
Bought Yes at 20.0¢ · stake $5.0k · profit $20.0k · resolved November 5, 2024
“Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? ”
Bought No at 58.4¢ · stake $2.1k · profit $1.2k · resolved July 31, 2025
Activity
22 resolved markets · total cost basis $129.0k · last trade December 6, 2025
Realized PnL −$36.1k — shown as context only; WalletRadar never ranks wallets by PnL.
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Is wallet 0xf625…aeb8 a skilled Polymarket trader?
This wallet (0xf625adeacea7b6cf44b46d56a9c298789d44aeb8) ranks #98 of 114 on WalletRadar's smart-money board with a confidence score of 21/100 (Early signal) across 22 resolved markets. The score measures statistical evidence of skill — value-weighted excess hit rate with confidence bounds — not raw profit.
How is this confidence score computed?
It combines a calibrated-null skill test (z-score with false-discovery control), longshot conversion, pre-event timing, and conviction sizing. It is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2) built on top of value-weighted excess hit rate from Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026, SSRN 6443103). It is statistical evidence consistent with informed trading — not insider-trading detection.
How fresh is this data?
This page is a snapshot as of June 10, 2026. The live WalletRadar leaderboard re-ranks every wallet nightly; real-time trade alerts for this wallet are available via the WalletRadar Telegram bot.
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Smart-money confidence is a WalletRadar extension (MANIFEST §2.2): statistical evidence consistent with informed trading (calibrated-null skill test + behavioral signals), not a claim of insider-trading detection.
Methodology: value-weighted excess hit rate (EHR_vw) per Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau (2026), SSRN 6443103; the confidence score is WalletRadar's documented extension. Survivorship note: 44% of users stop after 1 month, 66% after 6 months (incl. 55% of best performers).